Aryna Sabalenka arrives in Madrid as the undisputed queen of women's tennis. World number one, defending champion at the Caja Magica, the Belarusian is chasing a fourth Madrid title, a figure that would place her firmly in the tournament's record books. And rarely has a draw been this favourable.
The wave of withdrawals has fundamentally reshaped the field. Karolina Muchova, Stuttgart finalist last Sunday against Rybakina, pulled out citing fatigue. Barbora Krejcikova, Emma Raducanu, Amanda Anisimova, Emma Navarro and Marketa Vondrousova are also absent. In total, six seeded women withdrew before the main draw began, an extraordinary level of attrition for a WTA 1000 event of this calibre.
In the top half, Sabalenka is projected to face Peyton Stearns or Lois Boisson in the second round, with a potential quarterfinal against the young Mirra Andreeva. A semifinal clash with Iga Swiatek looms large, though the Pole is still finding her footing under new coach Carlos Roig, Rafael Nadal's former right-hand man. Swiatek, a four-time Madrid semifinalist or better, spent ten days training in Mallorca with Roig and appears to have rekindled her clay-court spark.
The bottom half features a potential quarterfinal blockbuster between Elena Rybakina, fresh off her Stuttgart title where she dismantled Muchova 7-5, 6-1 in the final, and Coco Gauff. Zheng Qinwen, who moved up in the seedings thanks to the withdrawals, could emerge as a dark horse in that section.
The numbers back Sabalenka's dominance. Thirteen wins from her last fifteen matches, a 26-4 record in 2026, and an unmatched Madrid pedigree: three titles in four editions, with her only setback a semifinal loss in 2024. Her raw power, renewed confidence following a blistering start to the season, and natural comfort on Madrid's high-altitude clay make her the overwhelming favourite.
The only genuine threats may come from Rybakina, riding a wave of momentum after Stuttgart and now the world number two, or Swiatek if the Pole rediscovers her best level on her favourite surface. The semifinals promise high-calibre tennis. But the road there looks remarkably clear for the world number one.
